Expectations

Millennials, Californians High on Housing

The latest Zillow Housing Confidence Index (ZHCI) reveals that homeowner expectations are higher than they were two years ago in the majority of metro areas tracked, and nowhere are they higher now than in The Golden State. The ZHCI homeowner expectations sub-indexes for Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Jose are now 77.5, 77.3, and…

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Expectations for Home Values Fading

Data from the latest installment of The Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey indicate that most of the 104 expert respondents foresee further moderation in the rate of U.S. home value appreciation beyond 2016. The outlook for 2016 U.S. home price appreciation is 3.7 percent, less than the 4 percent value increase realized in 2015. The…

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New Construction Double Jeopardy: Land & Labor

Sales of newly built single-family homes have struggled to recover to pre-recession norms, and single family construction activity overall has been anemic despite limited for-sale inventory and evidence of robust demand in certain market segments (e.g., entry-level homes). In the latest Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, we asked an expert panel of more than 100…

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Leaders & Laggards in U.S. Housing

As the U.S. housing market recovery has progressed, home values are responding to local economic conditions rather than broader national trends. As a result, some metro-area housing markets with very strong local economies are out-performing the nation as a whole, while others are lagging. Will current market laggards continue to under-perform in 2016 and beyond?…

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Long-term outlook for U.S. home values dims

The long-term outlook for U.S. home values has diminished to a three-year low, and a clear-cut consensus among the experts remains elusive at the national level. This, according to The Q4 edition of the Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey published today. (Pulsenomics conducted the survey and collected 108 responses). Based on the projections of the most optimistic…

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Households Ditch The Rear View Mirror

Real estate is a notoriously inefficient asset class. One symptom of market inefficiency is price inertia, a hallmark of housing markets. However, a comparison of actual U.S. home value changes in the recent past to expected changes for the near future (see below chart) suggests that as households ride the road to real estate recovery,…

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Lower Expectations Dent Housing Confidence

According to the vast majority of 10,000 heads of household who participated in the latest U.S. Housing Confidence Survey conducted by Pulsenomics, prevailing real estate market conditions are healthy, and in most major metropolitan areas, have continued to improve. However, expectations concerning the housing market–while still positive–have reversed course since the start of the year,…

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Outlook for US Home Prices Dims

The results of the latest Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey are in: the panel’s expectation for U.S. home values fell to a 3.4 percent average annual rate for the five-year forecast horizon in Q3. This is the first time in 18 months that this proxy for experts’ housing market sentiment has weakened, and it’s the…

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Most Experts Expect Home Value Gains Will Slow

Despite low inventory and persistent price gains in U.S. residential real estate markets, most of the 111 panelists who participated in the latest Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey believe that home values will level-off. The panel expects home values to rise an average of 4.3 percent nationally in 2015 (they rose 5% last year), and…

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Great (and Quite Variable) Expectations

“I have been bent and broken, but – I hope – into a better shape.” – Charles Dickens, from Great Expectations The U.S. Housing Confidence Survey (HCS) includes several questions regarding expectations for future home values within the local market where each head of household respondent resides. We ask the questions and carefully monitor the…

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