Amazon HQ2: Economists, Strategists Weigh-In

Pulsenomics

After receiving 238 bids, Amazon recently announced that it narrowed its focus to 20 cities as the potential home for its second headquarters (“HQ2”). HQ2 will have a profound impact on the chosen city’s real estate market and economy. The just-released Q1 2018 edition of The Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey asked an expert panel…

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$5.4 Trillion in Home Equity Separates U.S. Housing Optimists & Pessimists

Pulsenomics

The latest edition of the Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey was published this morning. A panel of more than 100 experts has updated their expectations for national home price growth rates through 2021. According to widely cited price indices, nominal home values have already eclipsed (or are close to surpassing) their pre-crash peak levels. And…

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Millennials, Californians High on Housing

Pulsenomics

The latest Zillow Housing Confidence Index (ZHCI) reveals that homeowner expectations are higher than they were two years ago in the majority of metro areas tracked, and nowhere are they higher now than in The Golden State. The ZHCI homeowner expectations sub-indexes for Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Jose are now 77.5, 77.3, and…

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Expectations for Home Values Fading

Pulsenomics

Data from the latest installment of The Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey indicate that most of the 104 expert respondents foresee further moderation in the rate of U.S. home value appreciation beyond 2016. The outlook for 2016 U.S. home price appreciation is 3.7 percent, less than the 4 percent value increase realized in 2015. The…

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New Construction Double Jeopardy: Land & Labor

Pulsenomics

Sales of newly built single-family homes have struggled to recover to pre-recession norms, and single family construction activity overall has been anemic despite limited for-sale inventory and evidence of robust demand in certain market segments (e.g., entry-level homes). In the latest Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, we asked an expert panel of more than 100…

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Leaders & Laggards in U.S. Housing

Pulsenomics

As the U.S. housing market recovery has progressed, home values are responding to local economic conditions rather than broader national trends. As a result, some metro-area housing markets with very strong local economies are out-performing the nation as a whole, while others are lagging. Will current market laggards continue to under-perform in 2016 and beyond?…

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Long-term outlook for U.S. home values dims

Pulsenomics

The long-term outlook for U.S. home values has diminished to a three-year low, and a clear-cut consensus among the experts remains elusive at the national level. This, according to The Q4 edition of the Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey published today. (Pulsenomics conducted the survey and collected 108 responses). Based on the projections of the most optimistic…

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Households Ditch The Rear View Mirror

Pulsenomics

Real estate is a notoriously inefficient asset class. One symptom of market inefficiency is price inertia, a hallmark of housing markets. However, a comparison of actual U.S. home value changes in the recent past to expected changes for the near future (see below chart) suggests that as households ride the road to real estate recovery,…

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Lower Expectations Dent Housing Confidence

Pulsenomics

According to the vast majority of 10,000 heads of household who participated in the latest U.S. Housing Confidence Survey conducted by Pulsenomics, prevailing real estate market conditions are healthy, and in most major metropolitan areas, have continued to improve. However, expectations concerning the housing market–while still positive–have reversed course since the start of the year,…

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