Results from the latest (Q3) edition of the Home Price Expectations SurveyÂ are now available. The survey was conducted by Pulsenomics July 31 â€“ August 14th.
A notable takeaway: the significant shift among our panelists recently in their outlook for 2023 U.S. housing market performance. The quarter-to-quarter change in near-term home price expectations (+3.7 points) is the largest in the 14-year history of this survey:
- The panel-wide mean expected home price change for 2023 back in Q1 was minus 2 percent, with two-thirds of experts then projecting a 2023 decline in prices nationwide; in Q2, the outlook improved to minus 0.4 percent, with just under one-half of experts projecting a decline.
- In our latest survey, the mean projection for 2023 home prices jumped into positive territory (+3.3 percent). One year agoâ€”even though mortgage rates were about 150 basis points lower than they are now–the average home price forecast for calendar year 2023 was less optimistic (+2.6 percent). Now, only 15 percent of our panel members expect negative home price returns for 2023 (reminder: projections are expressed in nominal terms).
Recent changes in both realized and expected home prices amidst elevated mortgage rates reflect the depth of our nationâ€™s housing supply problem. Hold the champagne.