For the first time in the 14-year history of Pulsenomics’ quarterly Home Price Expectations Survey, we asked our panel of experts to supplement their outlook for nationwide U.S. home prices with their expectations for each of 20 major metropolitan area housing markets. Respondents weighed-in with a price forecast for 2023 and expectations for when a market bottom will materialize.Â As many as 40 experts shared a metro-specific outlook. A few observations:
- Based upon the average of expert projections for 2023, outright price declines are expected in all but two of them (Philadelphia and Miami); in 11 of the 20, home prices are projected to outperform the -2.0% annual rate forecasted for the U.S. overall.
- For 8 of the 20, the majority of respondents believe prices will bottom out in 2023.
- Experts were most bearish about the near-term prospects for San Francisco home prices (mean expected 2023 price change of -6.9%, and 31% of respondents suggested the market bottom will not be found until sometime in 2025 or later).
- The panelists had the sunniest outlook for Miami (mean expected 2023 price change of +1.2%, and only 11% of respondents indicated the market bottom will come in 2025 or later).
- All of these expectations figures are expressed in nominal terms (i.e., they are not adjusted for expected inflation within the broader economy).