Great Expectations–2024 Crystal Ball Award-Winners

For fifteen years running, the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), produced by Pulsenomics in partnership with Fannie Mae, has served as a real estate market barometer and go-to resource for anyone trying to understand where U.S. home prices might be headed. Each quarter, over 100 expert panel members share their outlook and perspectives, forecasting the trajectory of home prices over the next five years and offering insights on the evolving landscape of residential real estate and mortgage markets. And every year, Pulsenomics recognizes the panelists who made the most accurate projections with its Crystal Ball Awards. We’re excited to announce our latest honorees and Top-10 rankings!

The sheer size of the U.S. housing market, its global interconnectedness, and the degree to which consumer spending and macroeconomic performance are affected by actual and expected home value changes underscore the importance of consistent efforts to effectively monitor and forecast home prices. This context illuminates why the input to this survey from every panel member is so greatly appreciated and valued by its wide, diverse audience. Consider:    

• The aggregate capital value of U.S. housing presently exceeds $52 trillion—it’s a massive economic force. Homeowner stakes are substantial, encompassing practical, economic, and deeply emotional dimensions. Residential real estate constitutes the largest asset for most homeowners, and fluctuations in home equity and expected values have significant implications for consumer spending and overall economic activity.
• The housing market continues to be a vital engine of the U.S. economy, supporting millions of jobs across construction, manufacturing, retail, finance, and various service industries. Housing’s contribution to U.S. GDP is substantial, encompassing private residential investment and consumer spending on housing services.
• The interconnectedness of the U.S. housing market extends globally, with governments and financial institutions worldwide holding trillions of dollars in mortgage and home equity securities.
• The U.S. federal government remains a major player in the housing market, a role that has expanded since the housing crisis of the late 2000s; given its extensive reach, the health and stability of U.S. housing markets have a tangible impact on all U.S. taxpayers.
• The long-term consequences of the unprecedented events and shifts experienced in the U.S. housing market over the past few years will continue to unfold, potentially amplifying volatility.

The audience for HPES – encompassing housing market policymakers, risk managers, real estate and mortgage industry stakeholders, consumers, and economists from both professional and academic spheres – continues to expand, and for good reason:

• Large and Diverse Panel: The survey compiles insights from a panel of more than 100 authoritative, independent subject matter experts.
• Long-Term Outlook: Panelists provide detailed year-by-year expectations for U.S. home prices over a five-year horizon.
• Contextual Analysis: Experts supplement their quantitative forecasts with qualitative opinions on the most pressing issues impacting the housing and mortgage sectors.
• Regular and Accessible Updates: HPES data are updated and published quarterly in a standardized format, freely available online.
• Extensive Historical Record: HPES comprises a rich dataset spanning over a decade and a half.
• Expert Survey Administration: HPES is managed by Pulsenomics, an independent consulting and opinion research firm with a well-earned reputation for producing high-quality, objective survey research.

In today’s volatile market environment, access to a large and broad array of expert perspectives is especially valuable. Our panel members’ projections and viewpoints—individually and collectively—provide valuable benchmarks to inform strategic business decisions and contribute to robust risk management policies for housing market stakeholders.